Trying to figure the casino odds

Patricia Lopez, Star Tribune
January 30, 2005

From pull tabs at bars to lottery tickets in every convenience store from Roseville to Roseau, from betting on ponies at Canterbury to pulling slots at more than a dozen Indian casinos, Minnesotans like to try their luck. But a new level may lie ahead.

Last week, during what is typically the rather dry presentation of the governor’s budget proposal, Minnesotans were treated to Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s proposals for additional gambling in the state.

Check out the seven options and the odds they face.

1. The Long Shot

The Mall of America has been called the "premier site in the nation" for a new casino by Las Vegas interests, who are eager to get in on what is already one of the top tourist draws in the country.

Pros: A casino here could bring in as much as $300 million to $400 million a year, according to State Lottery estimates. A good share of that cash would come from tourists and conventioneers, who might also drop some of their winnings at the mall, further bolstering profits.

Cons: Good grief, Charlie Brown, casinos at Camp Snoopy? Showgirls and shopping? Local opposition to slot machines at the family-oriented mall is strong, starting with the Bloomington legislators who normally would be expected to sponsor such a bill. Even the administration now deems the prospect "unlikely." But nothing that could make this much money is ever dead.

2. The Smart Money

Slots at racetracks, so-called racinos, have become moneymakers in many states, and tend to have more popular support than pure casinos. Canterbury Park has been pushing hard for years to get slot machines, and a proposed harness racetrack in Anoka County is thought to be a likely second site for a racino.

Pros: Even legislators opposing expanded gambling find it easier to vote for something that would "help out agriculture," as House Speaker Steve Sviggum, R-Kenyon, puts it. Pawlenty has said that northern Indian bands, the poorest in the state, could become partners with the racetracks for a piece of the action.

Cons: Returns are modest. State Lottery officials project just $50 million a year from a single racino at Canterbury. Projections for the harness track have not been made. The Mille Lacs Band is expected to fight vigorously against a casino at the Anoka track, which probably would cut traffic at the band's popular Grand Casino Mille Lacs.

3. The Favorite

Pawlenty's latest pitch centers on metro-area casino for interested bands, presumably the Leech Lake, Red Lake and White Earth bands, with whom he's been negotiating. They would own and operate the casino, while the state would own the slots and rake in at least $100 million in profits.

Pros: Until now, the three Chippewa bands, which make up 85 percent of the state's total Indian population, have had limited success with gambling because of the remoteness of their reservations. Pawlenty's plan would give them some economic development and afford him some political cover for expanding gambling.

Cons: A lot of Republicans still don't like the idea of more casinos, particularly if they benefit Indians, who as a whole have tended to contribute heavily to DFLers.

4. The Crap Shoot

Mom-and-pop taverns, particularly in outstate Minnesota, have been longing for video slots in bars but have met with heavy resistance. Such machines, run by the State Lottery, have proved lucrative in other states, where they turn up in saloons, restaurants and truck stops.

Pros: Big money -- as much as $400 million a year for the state, according to projections by the Minnesota Lottery, and a large boost for the small businesses that would have the slots.

Cons: Slots in bars might be too successful. Lottery officials have warned that the combination of easy access and rapid play makes this "the most problematic form of gambling."

5. The Short Odds

Pawlenty has repeatedly said his preference is not to expand gambling, but lately he has dangled the prospect of a third compact for the state's Indians, offering an array of casino games that could include live keno, craps, roulette and the spinning-reel-style slots offered in Las Vegas. The new compact could also approve multi-casino jackpots, offered in other states, and pari-mutuel betting. In return, the tribes would have to agree to pay revenues to the state.

Pros: Some would-be gamblers who aren't enticed by video slots and blackjack might be more excited by other games.

Cons: The Minnesota Indian Gaming Association has said its member bands and tribes -- which own the most successful casinos - have little interest in the new games, which do not bring in as much as slot machines. They contend that since casino gambling was intended by the federal government as a means of economic development for Indians, and since they developed the industry from nothing, they are entitled to the benefits.

6. The Hard Way

To make expanded gambling more appealing, Pawlenty has said that a portion of the money generated by a "partnership casino" would go into a community fund that could build, oh, a stadium, maybe a planetarium, maybe something for the arts. Or maybe a stadium.

Pros: This could prove the elusive nontax way to build the stadiums that the Twins, Vikings and Gophers demand. (The Gophers' demand is tempered by the fact that they can't move to another state, but still, they want one, too.)

Cons: Enthusiasm for new stadiums has been remarkably absent among Minnesotans, who have become inured to the nearly decadelong pleas for a replacement for the Metrodome. For both professional sports and the university, a link to gambling could prove problematic.

7. The Dark Horse

Rumors keep flying that St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly wants his city to be considered for a metro-area casino. Variations on this theme have it connected to the RiverPlace Convention Centre, parked as a riverboat on the Mississippi itself, run in partnership with Indians, or just as a commercial casino.

Pros: The location -- downtown + convention center + riverfront -- has appeal and could bring some energy to the city's center.

Cons: This slightly strait-laced city of neighborhoods seems an unlikely venue for a glossy downtown casino. Council members already have voiced objections, and residents are almost certain to oppose it. (Heck, some of them are still griping about downtown's sole jazz club.)

Patricia Lopez is a plopez@startribune.com